What Polymarket's return to USA means for Americans
Published:
Jul 24, 2025
,
05:58 p.m.
ET
Key Points:
Polymarket is set to re-enter the U.S. market after a $112M acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse.
The return will bring competition to Kalshi and potentially reshape the U.S. prediction market landscape.
Polymarket’s sports contracts blur the line between trading and traditional sports betting.
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Polymarket, the leading international prediction market platform, is coming back to the United States. After years operating abroad and in regulatory limbo, Polymarket has secured a pathway to legal access for American users, at least in part by acquiring QCEX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
The move marks a pivotal moment not only for Polymarket but for the entire U.S. prediction market space. Polymarket’s surge in popularity came in 2024 when the rapid evolution of its offerings enveloped prediction markets covering political gambling gray zones such as the U.S. presidential election.
For American users, this could signal a new frontier. But with innovation also comes questions about legality, regulation and even health risks. Here’s everything you need to know about what Polymarket’s U.S. return could mean.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users can essentially put monetary value against their opinions around the outcomes of real-world events. These include everything from presidential elections to interest rate changes, sporting events, pop culture (i.e. Academy Awards, Grammys) and cryptocurrency developments.
Instead of placing a traditional bet, users buy and sell shares in event outcomes: "Yes" or "No" contracts, where the price of each share reflects the market's perceived probability of that event occurring. Shares are priced between $0.01 and $1.00. A “No” share priced at $0.60 implies a 60% probability of that outcome not occurring. If an outcome resolves in your favor, you earn $1 per share.
Founded by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket has quickly grown into the most globally recognized name in event-based markets, earning a reputation as a hub for real-time forecasting.
Why did Polymarket leave the United States?
Prior to 2022, Polymarket offered prediction markets in the U.S. that were not supervised by the CFTC. Polymarket exited the U.S. in 2022 after reaching a settlement with the CFTC. The CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for offering unregistered binary options contracts and failing to register as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) or Swap Execution Facility (SEF).
The platform was ordered to wind down any non-compliant markets and cease operations that violated the Commodity Exchange Act. At the heart of the issue was Polymarket’s failure to seek the proper regulatory pathway despite allowing U.S. users to trade on politically sensitive markets.
Still, many Americans continued accessing Polymarket via VPN and cryptocurrency wallets. That underground participation showed the appetite existed, and that Polymarket just needed a compliant route to return.
When will Polymarket be accessible again in the U.S.?
There’s no confirmed date, but signs suggest a fall 2025 return is possible. Football season, particularly the NFL kickoff in September, is a prime target given the potential around sports event contracts.
The acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, gives Polymarket the legal foundation to operate in the U.S. The company describes the re-entry as coming in the “near future,” though timelines in these environments remain fluid.
A growing waitlist for U.S. users suggests momentum is building. While Kalshi has already established an operationally legal (but unsturdy) foothold with sports and political markets, Polymarket’s broader brand recognition could make its return disruptive.
In fact, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan appeared on CNBC this week and was asked about the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket. He replied: “Polymarket is Polymarket. And they’re a Polymarket copycat."
Does Polymarket offer a form of sports betting via sports event contracts?
Yes. Polymarket currently offers contracts that resemble common sports bets: game winners (money lines) and team or individual player season-long achievements (futures). These contracts are traded similarly to stock shares, ETFs, bonds and mutual funds rather than placed like bets in an online or in-person sportsbook.
The CFTC currently allows limited sports event trading under its event contracts category. Kalshi is widely known for this model and is partnered with Robinhood to offer it more widely, so Polymarket seems poised to follow suit in the U.S. market. But as legal challenges around the legality of these markets grow, only time will tell if opponents find success in court and stamp out what they see as unregulated sports betting.
How are Polymarket’s sports prediction markets different from sports betting?
While both involve predicting sports outcomes in hope of financial gain, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate under federal financial regulations rather than state gaming commissions. That distinction means prediction markets are structured around peer-to-peer trading of event contracts, whereas sportsbooks rely on “against-the-house” wagers where the operator profits from the spread.
Use cases also differ: prediction markets are often framed as hedging mechanisms, while sportsbooks market themselves as entertainment.
For the user, the core experience can feel similar: wager real money, pick an outcome, win or lose based on event results. That has triggered increasing scrutiny over whether prediction markets are functionally equivalent to sports betting.
Does Polymarket follow standard Responsible Gaming guidelines?
As of now, Polymarket has not publicly outlined a Responsible Gaming program analogous to what traditional sportsbooks offer – an area of potential concern, particularly given the addictive nature of short-term speculative trading.
By contrast, Kalshi has launched a “Consumer Protection Hub” with deposit limits, trading breaks, opt-out features and surveillance tools. Kalshi also partners with IC360 to monitor suspicious activity and uphold integrity.
If Polymarket wants to gain the trust of U.S. regulators and users alike, adopting similar consumer safeguards may be necessary.
How big is Polymarket? Kalshi comparisons
Polymarket is currently the largest prediction market platform in the world, possessing quadruple the trading volume of Kalshi ($623.6M vs. $143.5M), despite offering a third of the markets. While Kalshi focuses on U.S. users and compliance, Polymarket has benefited from an international audience and broader topics.
h/t Dustin Gouker, Event Horizon
Addiction treatment for compulsive gambling, sports betting and day trading
The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket brings new concerns around behavioral addiction. These platforms can blur the lines between finance and gambling, offering real-money stakes tied to at times rapidly resolving outcomes.
Labeled as “trading,” the psychological effects can mirror those of traditional gambling: dopamine rushes, compulsive checking, chasing losses, emotional swings and financial stress.
Birches Health provides expert virtual care for individuals struggling with gambling, sports betting or day-trading addictions. Birches’ team of certified counselors offer evidence-based treatment from the comfort of your home, tailoring care to your specific behaviors and needs.
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