What Polymarket's return to USA means for Americans

Key Points: 

• Polymarket is set to re-enter the U.S. market after a $112M acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse.

• The return will bring competition to rival Kalshi and potentially reshape the U.S. prediction market landscape.

• Polymarket’s sports contracts blur the line between trading and traditional sports betting.

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Polymarket, the leading international prediction market platform, is coming back to the United States. After years operating abroad and in regulatory limbo, Polymarket has secured a pathway to legal access for American users, at least in part by acquiring QCEX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.

The move marks a pivotal moment not only for Polymarket but for the entire U.S. prediction market space. For American users, this could signal a new frontier. But with innovation also comes questions about legality, regulation and even risks. Here’s everything you need to know about what Polymarket’s U.S. return could mean.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users can essentially put monetary value against their opinions around the outcomes of real-world events. These include everything from presidential elections to interest rate changes, sporting events, pop culture (i.e. Academy Awards, Grammys) and cryptocurrency developments.

Instead of placing a traditional bet, users buy and sell shares in event outcomes: "Yes" or "No" contracts, where the price of each share reflects the market's perceived probability of that event occurring. Shares are priced between $0.01 and $1.00. A “No” share priced at $0.60 implies a 60% probability of that outcome not occurring. If an outcome resolves in your favor, you earn $1 per share.

Founded by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket has quickly grown into the most globally recognized name in event-based markets, earning a reputation as a hub for real-time forecasting.

Why did Polymarket leave the United States?

Prior to 2022, Polymarket offered prediction markets in the U.S. that were not supervised by the CFTC. Polymarket exited the U.S. in 2022 after reaching a settlement with the CFTC. The CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for offering unregistered binary options contracts and failing to register as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) or Swap Execution Facility (SEF).

The platform was ordered to wind down any non-compliant markets and cease operations that violated the Commodity Exchange Act. At the heart of the issue was Polymarket’s failure to seek the proper regulatory pathway despite allowing U.S. users to trade on politically sensitive markets.

Still, many Americans reportedly continued accessing Polymarket via VPN and cryptocurrency wallets. That underground participation showed the appetite existed, and that Polymarket just needed a compliant route to return.

Does Polymarket offer a form of trading similar to sports betting via sports event contracts?

Yes. Polymarket currently offers sports event contracts that appear visually similar to common sports bets. These contracts are traded similarly to stock shares, ETFs, bonds and mutual funds rather than placed like bets in an online or in-person sportsbook.

The CFTC currently allows sports event trading under its event contracts category. Kalshi is widely known for this model and is partnered with Robinhood to help offer it even more millions of users, so Polymarket seems poised to follow suit in the U.S. market. But as legal challenges around the legality of these markets continue, only time will tell if opponents find success in court against what they see as unregulated sports betting.

How are Polymarket’s sports prediction markets different from sports betting?

While both involve predicting sports outcomes in hope of financial gain, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate under federal financial regulatory bodies' purview (mainly that of the CFTC), rather than state gaming commissions. That distinction means prediction markets are structured around peer-to-peer trading of event contracts, whereas sportsbooks rely on “against-the-house” wagers where the operator profits from the spread.

Use cases also differ: prediction markets are often framed as economic and financial hedging mechanisms, while sportsbooks are generally seen as entertainment.

For the user, the core experience can feel similar: risk real money, predict an outcome, win or lose based on event's outcome. That has led to increasing scrutiny over whether prediction markets are functionally equivalent to sports betting.

Addiction treatment for compulsive gambling, sports betting and financial trading

The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket brings new concerns around behavioral addiction around financial trading. The lines between finance and gambling can blur easily in today's world, leading to increased risk of health impacts. Even with trading, the psychological effects can be similar those of traditional gambling: dopamine rushes, compulsive checking, chasing losses, emotional swings and financial stress.

Birches Health provides expert virtual care for individuals struggling with these types of modern digital addictions. Birches’ team of certified counselors offer evidence-based treatment from the comfort of your home, tailoring care to your specific behaviors and needs.

• Book an appointment 

• Call 833-483-3838

• Email help@bircheshealth.com