Is it legal to bet on the Election for U.S. President?
Author:
Zach Lutz
Published:
Jul 16, 2024
,
02:50 p.m.
ET
Updated:
Oct 14, 2024
,
04:04 p.m.
ET
In recent U.S. presidential election cycles, there has been an increased use of betting odds to provide additional context around candidates’ chances of winning. Advanced polling and projections still provide critical information, but as sports betting has grown in popularity over the past six years, betting odds are more widely understood by a large number of U.S. citizens and therefore can be interesting data points for many voters.
After the assassination attempt of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania and President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race to be replaced by Kamala Harris, perhaps the most charged and polarizing U.S. Presidential Election is upon us. Given that it is an event that features contestants (candidates) and an outright winner, some individuals view it as comparable to a sporting event and therefore are interested in what the odds say.
Betting on the U.S. Election for President had not been legal in this country until October 2, 2024 when everything changed (more below). However, even before that there had been unregulated illegal ways to bet on the election, so it is important to be aware of the specifics regarding regulations and accessibility when looking at election odds at sportsbooks that offer them.
Can I bet on the results of the United States Presidential Election? YES
UPDATE: Oct 3, 2024:
Until a recent ruling, betting on the results of the U.S. Presidential Election within the boundaries of the country was prohibited. It was only legal to do so in other countries, most notably Canada and England. Therefore, a lot of the odds to be the next President of the United States that you have may see were likely from sportsbooks based in Ontario or overseas.
However, that all changed in on October 2, 2024 when a court in Washington, D.C. ruled that betting markets were legal in the U.S. This marked the first time in around 100 years that the election betting was allowed in the country.
The court case featured a New York-based online betting market called Kalshi against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi claimed that the CFTC had wrongly stopped the trading of contracts on political elections under a mistaken interpretation of gambling laws that equated elections with games.
After a short trial, a judge ruled that Kalshi could allow people in the U.S. to wager on elections.
Background and history of the Kalshi vs CFTC case:
9/16/24: After the initial legal victory that led to Kalshi offering betting markets on U.S. elections, the Court of Appeals “issued an order… temporarily freezing the matter until it can consider and rule on the issue.” Therefore, Kalshi’s legal offering of election betting lasted just a few hours. It's also worth noting that there is now a growing group of Democratic politicians who believe that election betting threatens free and fair elections, so we could see a future push for Congressional action to end betting on elections once and for all.
9/12/24: A federal judge struck down a decision by the CFTC to prohibit a company from offering what amounts to wagering on the outcome of Congressional elections. U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in favor of New York-based Kalshi, but did not detail the reasoning. The judge paused the topic until after a planned hearing, when the court may outline a rationale for the decision. The court could also could decide on the agency’s request for a two-week delay in the case. It is unclear whether Kalshi or other companies would also seek to offer bets on other elections, including the presidential race.
Know someone who may have a gambling problem? Make a confidential referral today
Get a FREE consultation from a Birches Health care specialist about your gambling
Why don’t traditional sportsbooks offer betting on the election?
Although some individuals may view the concept of betting on the U.S. Presidential Election (and other elections) as straightforward and unproblematic, it’s worth noting that voters can impact the outcome. Given that the majority of those within the country that would be wagering on the U.S. Presidential Election can also affect the outcome, the CFTC argued (unsuccessfully) that it would harm the integrity of them.
Therefore, traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have not offered election markets. However, it is unclear if the latest ruling in the Kalshi case will lead to traditional sportsbooks reconsidering their stance.
Be wary of illegal offshore sportsbooks
Offshore sportsbooks are a significant concern when it comes to betting on the U.S. Presidential Election. Simply put, they are as risky as it gets.
No matter how secure you may feel depositing via cryptocurrency or other methods may be, there is nothing backing those deposits, your wagers or potential winnings. Therefore, if you are not paid out winnings or permitted to make a withdrawal, there is nowhere to turn for assistance.
Offshore sportsbooks have also been known to shut down at a moment's notice. When a regulated U.S. sportsbook decides to do so, members will be able to withdraw the funds in their account and move on. Unfortunately, that is not a promise with offshore sportsbooks, especially if they are shut down due to not following regulations.
In other words, using illegal offshore sportsbooks simply to wager on the U.S. Presidential Election is not worth the risk, especially now that there is a legal option in Kalshi. You can learn more about the inherent dangers of offshore sportsbooks in this article as well.
Who is favored to win the 2024 U.S. Election for President?
Regardless of your political interests, the odds have seen significant movement in recent months. Trump was a significant favorite after the first debate and assassination attempt, but after Biden's departure from the race and replacement by Harris, she narrowed that gap significantly.
UPDATE: Oct 14, 2024
However in the first half of October, Trump has reestablished a notable lead in betting markets. After many weeks of the two candidates' odds being even or a very narrow edge to one of them, Trump is now around a -135 to -140 favorite, depending on the sportsbook or platform. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris' odds have moved from -110 to +110 at some shops.
The election forecast at Polymarket gives Trump a 54.9% chance, with Harris down to 44.6%. Similarly, Kalshi's betting markets show Trump at 54% and Harris at 46%.
Problem Gambling resources & treatment
Betting on events like the U.S. Presidential Election can ultimately lead to individuals identifying a gambling problem, if it is not already present. Therefore, it is important to be aware of services like Birches Health.
Birches offers virtual resources and care options for those in need, at risk or who know someone who may need assistance. With a large team of licensed, specially trained professionals ready to provide the help needed, Birches Health has quickly become a national leader for clinical treatment of gambling disorder in the U.S. There are many options for taking an initial step toward help and recovery with Birches:
You can also simply call 833-483-3838 or email hello@bircheshealth.com to get in touch directly with the Birches team.
Sources:
CFTC goes all in on fight over political betting - POLITICO.
As the 2024 Race Heats Up, Betting Is Growing for Everything but Elections - The New York Times
https://apnews.com/article/betting-on-elections-gambling-kalshi-trump-harris-4f45fdf2bd8b1d30d4e1f131e637418a
