What You Need to Know Before Betting on MLB Baseball

The 2024 Major League Baseball season is officially underway. All 30 teams participated in Opening Day last Thursday, which marked the beginning of the 162-game marathon of a season. It’s a long year for the players, but it can also be a difficult period for sports bettors who bet on baseball. MLB is one of the most difficult sports to bet on for several different reasons, which is why it can also be dangerous and risky to do so.

Why is betting on MLB baseball so hard?

Variance of outcomes

Just like any sporting event, there is a favorite and an underdog in a baseball game. However, just because a team is a favorite does not mean they are guaranteed to win. In the last five years, the favorites have won in just 57.5% of games (Boydsbets). While it’s more than half of the games, the issue is the juice on the bet. For example, a favorite on a moneyline bet can range anywhere from -110 to even -500. So although favorites won nearly 60% of the time, it was quite unprofitable betting on favorites. If you bet $100 on every favorite in the last five seasons, you would be down roughly $7,000 (Boydsbets). 

Secondly, since there are eight position players, one starting pitcher, a bench unit, and a group of relievers, there are a lot of other factors that can affect the outcome of the game. On any given day, one team can play better than the other and surprise bettors across the country who thought that the other, much better team (on paper) was a lock.

Abundance of stats and information

Research is a critical part of any baseball bet. However, there can at times be too much information and stats to research before a game. Important information includes the starting pitchers, starting lineups, and the location of the game. But those factors are just the tip of the iceberg. 

Other stats to keep in mind include the weather, the bullpen talent, whether the game is inside or outside, the amount of rest each team is on, hitter stats against a lefty or righty pitcher, and more. In summary, there are a lot of things to consider before placing a bet on baseball, any of which may have a significant impact on the outcome on that given day. In part, this why many bettors say that MLB is the most difficult league to bet on regularly. 

Volume of games

The MLB season can be summarized in one word - grueling. Opening Day - usually near the end of March - marks the start of a 162-game season that features teams traveling across the country playing almost every day for six months. The regular season usually ends in late September or early October, and if a team is lucky enough to be playing for a World Series title, their season likely won’t end until late October.

Between all 30 teams, there are 2,430 baseball games played in the regular season. Since each team plays around six times a week, that means there are plenty of games each day. It’s not uncommon for a team to play on 10 straight days, or league-wide for there to be 15 total games on the slate multiple days in a row. The plethora of games on a daily basis can make betting on baseball even more difficult, with hundreds (if not thousands) of betting options available every single day. . 

Lineups change constantly

Unlike a lot of other sports, the starting lineup in baseball can change daily. In football or basketball, the starting lineup usually consists of the top players from the team. However, in baseball that’s not always the case. 

A manager will shift the starting lineup around depending on several factors, like which players are swinging a hot bat or the type of pitcher they are facing. A starting lineup against a right-handed pitcher one day might be completely different from a lineup facing a lefty pitcher the next. Therefore, it’s critical for bettors to stay on top of team news every day to have a good sense of who will be playing, and whom they’ll be playing against. 

Why baseball betting can be dangerous

As mentioned, there are 2,430 MLB games over the course of the regular season alone. That means there are theoretically millions of betting options available throughout the year, which naturally makes it one of the most dangerous sports to bet on for the potential of developing an addiction to gambling. When there are seemingly never-ending opportunities to bet – whether that’s to try to win more, or to try to win back money that was lost – the volume of games can act as a slippery slope toward unhealthy behaviors and potentially problem-gambling issues. 

Additionally, a decent-sized portion of MLB season falls during the “dog days of summer” when very few other professional sports are in season. The NFL, NBA and NHL are in their offseasons, so some daily bettors view baseball as their only option for creating the “rush” of having a financial rooting interest in what they’d otherwise see as somewhat meaningless regular-season games. Baseball is already a very difficult sport to bet on, so if you’re gambling on it just because it’s the only sport being played at the time, you’re making it even more difficult on yourself to break even, never mind make a profit. 

One of the most important Responsible Gaming tips is to never chase your losses. If you lose one bet (or multiple), don’t place more just to try to win your losses back and break even. That is the fastest way for your losses to multiply quickly, and suddenly you’ve lost much more than you anticipated or thought possible.

It’s important to be smart with your bankroll (your betting budget), especially during baseball season which is six months long. For many, that’s the biggest challenge with betting on baseball - not getting sucked into betting more just because there are a lot of games each day. If you lose one bet, don’t look to a later game to try and salvage the day. It’s a marathon and not a sprint, so don’t chase your losses in baseball (or any other sport). Many gambling addicts have shared stories about how chasing their losses led to their betting habits spiraling out of control and ultimately resulted in a gambling disorder. 

Help and resources for Gambling Addiction 

The baseball season is long and difficult, so it’s important to know that there are resources available in case you or someone you know may be suffering from a gambling addiction. Birches Health is an online care provider that offers confidential counseling and treatment options that fit your schedule. The Birches care team is a specially trained group of professionals with years of experience helping those with gambling addiction and other behavioral health issues. 

If you or someone you know may benefit from learning more about Birches Health, please call (833) 483-3838 or email hello@bircheshealth.com to speak with a care specialist today. 

Sources:

Baseball Betting Strategies: Best MLB Underdog Systems to Win Profits