Sports Betting Rigged? How Sportsbooks Always Win

As October rolls in, it's a prime time for sports betting enthusiasts. Football season (NCAA and NFL) is in full swing, MLB playoffs are heating up, and the new NHL and NBA seasons are getting underway. But amid the excitement, it's worth asking: Does the average bettor have any hope of winning and turning a profit long term? Or is sports betting too stacked against them?

How big of an advantage do sportsbooks have over bettors in sports betting?

Sportsbooks are designed to make a profit, and their advantage over bettors is built into the system. When placing a bet, most people don't realize how much the odds are skewed in favor of the house. Sportsbooks use a combination of "vig" (short for vigorish) and odds manipulation to ensure they come out ahead long term, regardless of outcomes. The “vig,” or “juice,” is a commission taken by the bookmaker, and it's one of the reasons bettors must generally win 52.38% of their bets at standard -110 odds just to break even.

For example, a game where both teams have near-equal chances of winning might still see both sides offered at -110 odds. This means that for every $110 bet, the bettor can win $100. Or for every $11 risked, they’d win $10. 

What is the break-even point in sports betting? 

In a traditional bet with -110 odds, the break-even point is not a 50/50 chance as some think, but actually a 52.38% winning rate. This is due to the vig, and it's an often-overlooked aspect of betting. A bettor must win more than half of their bets to merely break even.

It’s worth noting that not all sportsbooks offer -110 odds anymore. Some have moved to slightly higher vig rates, especially for prop bets and other markets outside of the spread and total. And while parlay bets may seem enticing because of their potential for higher payouts, the higher hold makes it even harder to come out ahead.

How many sports bettors make a profit? How rare is it?

The odds of making a consistent profit in sports betting are slim. Studies show that only about 1% of sports bettors turn a profit in the long term, and the vast majority of those are professional gamblers. According to Jim Makos, a professional bettor, 85-90% of players lose money over time, with only 1-5% seeing meaningful returns.

This grim reality isn't surprising when you consider that the house edge makes it nearly impossible to come out ahead consistently. Even a slight shift in odds can drastically change the potential outcome, turning what might seem like a solid bet into a loss over time. Betting regularly makes it even more of an uphill battle, as the variance of going on a hot streak with multiple wins is statistically likely to be outweighed by inevitable cold streaks. If you start betting and happen to be one of the few who turns a profit, the smartest move may be to quit right then and there, as future bets will just decrease the chances of you maintaining it. 

How difficult is it to win money betting parlays?

Parlays are incredibly popular but even more difficult to win. A parlay consists of multiple bets that all need to win for the parlay to pay out. While the payouts for parlays can be huge, the likelihood of hitting on all legs of a parlay is low, making them a risky proposition.

For example, a simple two-leg parlay might have odds of +260, meaning a $100 bet could pay $260. However, the true probability of hitting both legs is often closer to 3-to-1, meaning the sportsbook is padding its profit margin further. This house edge only increases as more legs are added to the parlay. By the time you’ve constructed a five-leg parlay, the house edge can exceed 35%, making it far more likely that the sportsbook profits while bettors chase long-shot payouts.

The explosion of Same Game Parlays (SGPs) has further complicated things. These bets, which allow for multiple picks within the same game, have grown in popularity thanks to marketing by major sportsbooks. While they offer the thrill of a big payout, the odds are even more heavily skewed in favor of the house, as sportsbooks can build in even more vig/hold, making long-term profitability even more unlikely.

As you can see, there's a reason why sportsbooks LOVE when users bet parlays, as they sportsbooks' profit margins increase greatly versus straight bets.

Sports Betting tips for gambling responsibly

Given the challenges of winning at sports betting, it's important to approach it with caution and responsibility. Here are some tips to keep your betting under control:

• Set a Budget: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Establish a betting budget and stick to it, regardless of whether you're winning or losing.

• Avoid Chasing Losses: It can be tempting to try to win back money after a losing streak, but this often leads to even bigger losses.

• Bet with Your Head, Not Your Heart: It’s easy to bet on your favorite team, but emotional bets are often the least rational. Stick to well-researched, data-driven decisions.

• Don’t Bet Parlays: While they offer big payouts, parlays are tough to win consistently. Keep your parlay bets small and infrequent to avoid major losses.

• Take Breaks: If you find yourself betting too often or feeling stressed by losses, take a break. Betting should be a fun activity, not a source of anxiety.

Specialized Gambling Addiction Treatment 

While sports betting can be an enjoyable pastime, it can also lead to serious problems for some individuals. The rush of a big win or the frustration of a losing streak can push people into a cycle of compulsive gambling. If you or a loved one find it hard to stop betting, it may be time to seek help.

At Birches Health, specialized gambling addiction treatment is tailored to each person's unique needs. Services include:

• Telehealth Counseling: Speak with a counselor from the comfort of your home. Birches provides confidential, expert guidance to help you regain control.

• Support Groups: Connect with others facing similar challenges. Our group therapy sessions offer a safe space to share experiences and strategies for overcoming addiction.

• Educational Programs: Learn more about the psychological and financial aspects of gambling addiction through our comprehensive educational offerings.

Birches believes in empowering individuals to make informed decisions about their gambling habits and to provide the support necessary for long-term recovery.

Here’s how you can start with Birches Health:

• Schedule an Appointment

• Speak to Our Care Team 

• Refer a Loved One

• Take the Free Self-Assessment

You can also call us at 833-483-3838 or email us at hello@bircheshealth.com to connect with our Birches team as soon as possible.