Trump vs Harris: Who is favored in election betting odds?
Author:
Zach Lutz
Reviewed by:
Published:
Oct 17, 2024
,
09:51 a.m.
ET
November 5th is Election Day, and the 2024 U.S. Presidential election promises to be one of the most contentious in the history of the country. With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris stamped as the candidates, polls and betting odds are increasingly being used to gauge the potential outcome of this political showdown. While polling remains a critical tool for understanding public sentiment, election betting markets offer a different perspective, reflecting the opinions of bettors willing to place money on the outcome.
With recent developments, including around the legality of election betting in the U.S., these odds have gained greater attention. Let's explore how betting markets are shaping the narrative around Trump and Harris, as well as the risks involved in placing bets on the U.S. election.
Can you bet on the results of the United States Presidential Election?
Yes, you can now legally bet on the results of the U.S. Presidential election as of October 2, 2024. This change came after a landmark court ruling in Washington, D.C. that allowed certain betting markets, including the New York-based platform Kalshi, to offer wagers on U.S. elections.
Previously, betting on U.S. elections was prohibited within the country. Bettors had to rely on offshore sportsbooks or markets in places like Canada and the U.K. This ruling marked a historic shift, as it legalized betting on one of the most significant political events in the United States.
This case centered around Kalshi’s claim that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had wrongly interpreted gambling laws, which had previously prevented U.S. citizens from betting on political outcomes. After a trial, a judge sided with Kalshi, allowing the platform to open election betting markets.
However, the ruling has not been without controversy. Some politicians are concerned that legalized betting on elections could undermine the integrity of the democratic process. Despite these concerns, the ruling stands for now, opening up new opportunities for those interested in election betting within the U.S.
For more details about the legal battle and the implications of the court’s decision, you can read the full story in our Election Betting Guide.
Who is favored to win the U.S. Presidential election? Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
According to the latest odds, Donald Trump is currently the betting favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Major sportsbooks like Bet365 and political betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi show Trump leading.
As of October 17, 2024, Trump’s odds to win the election at Bet365 stood at -150 (risk $150 to win $100, or bet $15 to profit $10). In comparison, Kamala Harris, who took over as the Democratic candidate after Biden’s withdrawal, holds odds of +120.
While these odds reflect current betting sentiment, they should be viewed with caution. Betting markets can be volatile, and external factors such as debates, economic conditions and legal issues can dramatically shift the odds.
On Kalshi, Trump has similarly favorable odds with markets giving him a 57% chance of winning compared to Harris’s 43%. Polymarket has Trump with an even greater advantage at 62% to Harris’ 38%. This suggests that Trump’s momentum is strong, but the race remains competitive, especially with key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin likely to play pivotal roles.
Be wary of offshore sportsbooks’ election betting
While the recent court ruling allows for legal betting on U.S. elections through platforms like Kalshi, bettors should be ever more cautious about using offshore sportsbooks. These sites often operate outside U.S. regulations, making them risky for several reasons.
Firstly, offshore sportsbooks lack consumer protections. If you win a bet and the sportsbook refuses to pay out, there is little recourse for recovering your funds. Additionally, these platforms may shut down unexpectedly, leaving bettors without access to their accounts or balances.
Another major concern is the security of deposits. Offshore sportsbooks may not follow the same financial regulations as U.S.-based platforms, increasing the likelihood of deposit-related issues. Whether you’re using cryptocurrency or other payment methods, your funds are far less secure on these sites.
Given that there are now legal options for betting on U.S. elections, there’s no reason to take unnecessary risks with offshore platforms.
Problem Gambling resources & treatment
While election betting can add an exciting dynamic to the political season, it’s important to recognize the risks, especially for those prone to gambling addiction. The high stakes and unpredictability of events like the U.S. Presidential election can intensify gambling behavior, potentially leading to unhealthy patterns. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling addiction, especially as election day approaches, Birches Health is here to help.
Birches’ team of trained professionals understand the unique challenges posed by political betting and offer tailored support to help you regain control. Whether you're dealing with mounting losses or the emotional toll of gambling, partake in a range of resources designed to assist you in making informed decisions and avoiding addiction pitfalls.
To take the first step toward recovery:
You can also simply call 833-483-3838 or email hello@bircheshealth.com to get in touch directly with the Birches team.
