Is it smart to bet Same Game Parlays? SGP's explained
Author:
Zach Lutz
Reviewed by:
Published:
Oct 18, 2024
,
03:58 p.m.
ET
The rise of sports betting in the United States has transformed how fans engage with their favorite sports. While traditional bets like money lines and point spreads remain popular, one form of wagering has taken center stage in recent years: Parlays. Specifically, Same Game Parlays (SGPs) have captured the attention of both seasoned gamblers and casual bettors alike. Sportsbooks aggressively promote SGPs through commercials, social media and pre-built bets, but with the allure of high payouts comes a significant question: Is it smart to bet on Same Game Parlays?
In this article, we dive into what SGPs are, why they’re so popular and the risks involved. We’ll also explore the role of correlation in these bets and why sportsbooks love promoting them.
What are Same Game Parlays?
Same Game Parlays (SGPs) allow bettors to combine multiple picks – also known as "legs" – from the same game into one bet. Unlike traditional parlays, where outcomes are spread across different games or sports, SGPs focus entirely on a single games or event. For instance, in an MLB playoff game, you could combine bets like:
Los Angeles Dodgers to win (money line)
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run
Over 7.5 total runs scored
To win the Same Game Parlay, all of these outcomes must occur. If even one leg fails, the entire SGP loses. The allure of Same Game Parlays is the potential for a large payout, at times from just a small initial wager, but this comes with high risks and low “expected value.”
Why you shouldn’t bet Same Game Parlays (SGP’s)
Same Game Parlays are an increasingly popular subset of America’s favorite bet type: parlays. Betting SGPs may seem like an exciting way to add increased rooting interests to a game you’re going to watch. But they often carry hidden pitfalls that work to the sportsbook’s advantage. Let’s dive into some of the reasons why it’s almost always unwise to bet Same Game Parlays nowadays.
Significant Vig Hidden within Odds
One of the biggest problems with SGPs is the significant "vig" (short for vigorish) embedded in the odds. The vig, or “juice,” is essentially the house edge in sports betting. With SGPs, sportsbooks can justify higher vig by adjusting odds for correlated outcomes.
For example, if you bet on a running back to score multiple touchdowns and his team to win, these outcomes are correlated. The sportsbooks, aware of this, often adjust the odds downward to account for the increased likelihood of these outcomes occurring together. But the “secret sauce” of exactly how correlated they are mathematically and therefore how much that correlation should impact the odds is where they can over-adjust the odds in their favor to essentially hide additional vig and increase their expected “hold” for the bets.
Correlation Between Legs
Sportsbooks have cleverly turned the correlation between certain outcomes into a way to rationalize offering worse odds. Bettors might think they are making smart, well-informed bets by choosing correlated outcomes, such as a star quarterback throwing for over 300 yards in a game in which his team wins or covers the spread. But sportsbooks exploit these correlations to lower the overall payout while still enticing bettors with flashy potential returns.
Sportsbooks Love to Advertise SGPs
There’s a reason why sportsbooks aggressively promote Same Game Parlays. They know that while the big payouts may occasionally hit the headlines, most bettors will lose their wagers more often than not. The structure of SGPs – with their high variance and low expected value – works heavily in the sportsbooks’ favor. They drive a significant amount of betting volume, increase engagement, and most importantly pad the sportsbooks’ bottom lines.
Why are SGP’s so popular?
Despite the disadvantages for bettors, SGPs have exploded in popularity. Why? Several psychological and emotional factors come into play.
Bettors Think They Know the Game's Narrative
One of the biggest draws of Same Game Parlays is the feeling that you can predict not just the outcome of the game but how it will unfold. Many bettors love to craft a narrative around how they think a game will go – whether it’s a star player having a breakout performance or the total points exceeding a certain number. This sense of control over the game’s story enhances engagement while watching, but also leads to overconfidence in betting on multiple outcomes. And again, all of the individual picks within the SGP need to be correct for it to win. If the game plays out mostly how you envisioned and 4 of 5 legs hit, the SGP loses.
High Payout Potential
The lure of a massive payout from a small wager is another key factor. SGPs often appear to have attractive odds, with the potential payout much larger than the risk amount, making some of them even feel like lottery tickets. Bettors are willing to take the risk because the potential reward is so enticing, even if the actual chances of winning are much lower than they appear.
Enhanced Game-Watching Experience
For casual bettors, SGPs can make watching a game more exciting. With multiple outcomes in play, there’s pretty much always something to root for, especially in games where you might not have a strong rooting interest otherwise. This added layer of excitement drives engagement, which is why sports leagues and sportsbooks both like the concept.
Understanding the role of correlation in Same Game Parlay odds
The key to understanding why SGPs are a poor value lies in the concept of correlation. When two or more outcomes in a parlay are correlated, it means that the occurrence of one event makes the others more likely. For example, if a team's star quarterback throws for 3+ touchdowns, that increases the chances that the team wins the game.
Example of Correlated Legs
Imagine placing an SGP where you bet on:
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to throw 3+ touchdowns
The Chiefs to win the game (money line)
The “over/under” for total combined points to go over 50
These bets are all correlated – if the quarterback throws a lot of touchdowns, the game will likely be high-scoring and his team will be more likely to win. While it might seem smart to stack these outcomes, sportsbooks adjust the odds to account for the correlation, almost always to the bettor’s detriment.
Why are Same Game Parlays dangerous?
Same Game Parlays can be addictive, as they can offer the allure of big payouts from a small wager. However, the all-or-nothing nature of these bets makes them particularly risky. Bettors are drawn in by the idea that they can "narrate" a game’s outcome, but the low expected value and high variance of SGPs mean that most bettors will lose over time. Again, there’s a reason why sportsbooks love to promote Same Game Parlays.
The thrill of chasing big payouts can lead to unhealthy gambling behaviors, especially among at-risk individuals. The ease with which SGPs can be placed, combined with the constant promotion by sportsbooks, can exacerbate problematic gambling tendencies. Bettors may find themselves chasing losses or making increasingly risky bets in an attempt to recover previous losses, a hallmark of gambling addiction.
Gambling Addiction resources & treatment
If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling addiction, it’s important to seek help. Same Game Parlays and other forms of high-risk betting can quickly spiral out of control quickly, leading to financial and emotional distress, plus other negative impacts on mental health and important aspects of life such as interpersonal relationships.
If you want to connect with Birches Health, there are multiple options:
You can also call us at 833-483-3838 or email us at hello@bircheshealth.com to connect with our Birches team as soon as possible.
